AINDEX Methodology

Systematic Trading Intelligence powered by transparent, multi-layer AI

01 Context & Innovation

The project analyzes how the inclusion or exclusion of specific securities from an index is becoming a decisive factor in modern investment strategies, driven by the evolution of digital finance and artificial intelligence (AI).

Traditionally, investors replicated indices through ETFs. With Direct Indexing, however, they can build personalized indices by directly purchasing fractional shares of individual stocks β€” excluding or including securities based on ethical, strategic, or risk-based criteria.

This AI-enhanced approach enables the creation of actively managed thematic indices, which are immediately investable and adaptable to market trends.

02 AI System Architecture

The entire model is based on three classes of AI applications, coordinated by a Supervisor:

Unsupervised Machine Learning

Identifies patterns, key variables, and risk profiles through clustering and dimensionality reduction techniques.

Machine Learning (Tactical)

Generates daily buy ("Long") or inactivity ("Out") signals for each asset, aiming to maximize the risk/return ratio while minimizing trading frequency.

Swarm Intelligence & Deep Learning (Strategic)

Evaluates the optimal index composition and necessary daily adjustments based on the signals produced by the other modules.

A.I. is employed to estimate, for each financial instrument analyzed, the probability of upward or downward movement for each of the 20 market days following the most recent trading value.

03 Risk Management

Risk is classified into three categories:

βœ“

Acceptable

Assets with manageable risk profiles

βœ•

Unacceptable

Illiquid assets, short selling (excluded)

⚠

Unavoidable

Systemic market risk

The investable universe includes only instruments with acceptable risk profiles, explicitly excluding illiquid assets.

04 Cyclicality & Operational Signals

Through the analysis of over 50,000 instruments, the system identified 12 statistically significant zones within each market cycle, represented as a clock:

12h
Peak
6h
Trough
3h
Sell Zone
9h
Ascending

Core AI Trading Rules:

  1. Buy at 12h or 6h
  2. Sell at 3h or upon reaching the stop-loss
  3. Avoid short selling (classified as an unacceptable risk)

Zones between 6 and 3 (via 12) are statistically favorable.

05 Daily Indicators

Each day, the system calculates for every instrument:

πŸ“Š
Performance
Value, Growth, etc.
πŸ“ˆ
Trend
Buy, Long, Sell, Out
⚑
Risk
ESMA scale 1–9
⭐
Rating
Quality score
πŸ’§
Liquidity
Trading volume
πŸ•
Clock
Cycle phase
🎯
Entry Price
Optimal entry
πŸ›‘οΈ
Stop Level
Risk limit

It also generates an automated English commentary for each instrument, ensuring consistent, unbiased insights.

06 Composition & Allocation Logic

Index Entry & Exit:

  • Instruments enter the index with equal weighting (e.g., 10 stocks = 10% each)
  • Exclusion rules triggered by:
    • Lack of liquidity
    • Excessive correlation
    • Reaching maximum number of constituents

Cash Allocation (Golden Ratio):

The cash allocation is dynamically calculated based on the proportion of "Long" signals within the investable universe, following a ratio inspired by the Golden Ratio (1.6 β‰ˆ Ο†).

Example:
If 47% of assets are "Long", the system invests 76% of capital and keeps 24% in cash.

07 Final Objective

To create dynamic, transparent, AI-managed thematic indices capable of:

  • Adapting in real time to market changes
  • Optimizing the risk/return profile
  • Ensuring neutrality and the absence of bias
  • Enabling personalized, automated portfolio management

Active Direct Indexing System

Powered by transparent, multi-layer AI
Combining quantitative analysis, risk control, and market cyclicality

Welcome to AIndex

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